Chemicals make up the decline continued

Since 2014, with the exception of non-ferrous metals, black building materials and chemicals have been in a bear market. From a time point of view, after the Spring Festival, the varieties of thread, iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, and methanol all continued to fall in a unilateral manner, while varieties such as PP and PE stopped falling in March and hit a market in coal chemical industry in July. Driven by the decline in crude oil, it began to turn downwards. PTA rebounded for 3 months under the lead of the manufacturer's limited production insured price in May. After the PTA price alliance collapsed in August, the cost of PX collapsed and the three major petrochemical products are currently collapsed. As the leading losers, several varieties after the National Day holiday drastically decreased, and in the later period, we believe that after the oversold consolidation, there will be further decline.

Multiple bad bears caused the PTA to fall sharply. First, the cost side fell, crude oil fell, naphtha and PX both fell. During the National Day and after the holiday, the FOB Korea PX fell by a total of US$113.5. The decline in PX was the main reason for the decline in PTA. At present, the price difference between PX and naphtha is at a high of US$370/tonne, PX profits are better, and the power to cut output is lacking, and the possibility of further PX decline still exists. Secondly, with the increase in supply and flat demand, early-September and early-October domestic PTA enterprise pre-service overhauls started. PTA start-up rates rose from 66% on September 30 to 73.1% on October 10, while polyester start-up rates Maintained at 71%, the unbalanced supply and demand in the market resulted in a significant drop in spot transaction prices. Market transactions dropped from 6,600 yuan/ton before the holiday to 5,900 yuan/ton near Friday, and the price fell accordingly. The devices scheduled to be overhauled in October include 750,000 tons of Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical, 600,000 tons of Hanbang Petrochemical, and 600,000 tons of Fujian Jialong. All of these devices are scheduled to be parked for one week, and the reduction of supply will be limited. In summary, from the cost side and the supply and demand side of the PTA or continue to explore, but it is recommended not to blindly chase the air, beware of oversold rebound consolidation.

In the week of the multinational celebration holiday, the domestic LLDPE spot market declined slightly, the petrochemical plant's quotation only fell slightly, the ethylene price in Asia remained stable, the polyethylene price fell 5-15 US dollars/ton, the ethylene price and the polyethylene price were almost the same, the ethylene profit Better and lower downstream profits may weigh on ethylene prices. Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic petrochemicals was 87%, and the petrochemical inventories in the three major regions increased by more than 20,000 tons compared with the pre-holiday ones. The polyethylene downstream of the farmland membrane did not flourish during the peak season, and the downstream plants were used more with the use of the farmland. The production rate of the farmland membrane was about 40-50%. During the National Day, the increase in crude oil supply and demand worrisome news triggered a big slump, fell below 90 US dollars, resulting in PE opened sharply after the holiday season, from the perspective of their own supply and demand, PE may still decline in the short term, in mid-October, Baofeng 300,000 in Ningxia Ton of coal-to-peer PE projects are about to test, which will continue to bring weaker expectations for the weak polyethylene market. However, the overhaul of 600,000 tons of projects in China Coal and Shaanxi Yulin during the National Day period may weaken the stimulus of the incident.

The reasons for the decline of PP and PE are the same as the collapse of crude oil, accumulation of National Day stocks, and the impact of coal chemical industry. In the later period, PP is still a bearable factor. On October 16th, Baosteel tested 300,000 tons of PP, and Datang Duolun Coal Chemical Industry also Plans to restart, although during the National Day extension of Sinoma Yulin and Shaanxi Yulin's parking has certain support for PP, the decline is less than PE, while the PP** discounted spot price is larger is also the reason for the limited decline, but with the petrochemical price changes Difficult and coal chemical projects put into operation the possibility of falling spot still exists, PP supply and demand side will cause the PP spot to decline, the ** side held empty, not empty.

The decline in crude oil, cost-side collapse, economic demand concerns, deterioration of the supply and demand side, or the decline of chemicals will not come to an end, but it is not appropriate to chase the air, there is a single holding, no waiting for opportunities, another PP, PE ** posted The water spot situation is also worth noting, falling or going back and forth.