2024 Cobalt Price Trend Analysis ‌

 

Cobalt prices show a bottom shock trend in 2024. ‌

 

Cobalt prices experienced volatility in 2024, but overall showed a trend of bottom volatility. Entering March, the cobalt market continued to be hit by oversupply and prices kept falling. According to the latest statistics from the Global Economic Indicators network, cobalt prices have fallen by 2.01% this year, and as of March 11, cobalt prices were $28,550 / ton, down 70% from the historic high in the same period in 2018, and the full year of 2023 has fallen by 16.47%. In addition, lithium, nickel prices also declined ‌.

 

However, from the demand side, the increase in the installed capacity of ternary batteries and the recovery of the proportion of ternary batteries, as well as the recovery of the terminal demand for ternary batteries, have promoted the rise in cobalt prices. China Automotive power battery Industry Innovation Alliance data show that in November 2023, China's loading capacity has increased, power battery loading capacity increased by 31.0% year-on-year, an increase of 14.5%. Among them, the ternary battery load accounted for 35.0% of the total load, and the lithium iron phosphate battery load accounted for 64.9% of the total load. With the continuous decline in nickel and cobalt prices, the cost gap between ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries has further narrowed, the cost performance advantage of ternary batteries has been highlighted, and it is expected that ternary battery sales will rise in the future, and the demand for cobalt market is good ‌.

 

In terms of global cobalt resource supply, the increase in the production of mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo and wet nickel projects in Indonesia has kept the global cobalt resource supply loose. Despite the ongoing downturn in the market, cobalt market demand is expected to maintain moderate growth. In the new energy vehicle industry, ternary power batteries still show high growth potential despite fierce competition from lithium iron phosphate batteries, which will continue to support the demand for cobalt ‌.

 

To sum up, after a period of decline in cobalt prices in 2024, cobalt prices may remain at a relatively stable level due to changes in market demand and adjustments in global supply, showing a bottom shock trend.